ABSTRACT
Speculating about future demographic trends may well be extremely foolhardy, since, as Grebenik (1991) has pointed out, demographers and others who have studied population movements in the past have not been conspicuously successful in accurately foreseeing demographic developments. Nonetheless, this does not mean that examining present trends with a view to considering what future demographic scenarios may be like is without value. If we look at historical trends, patterns emerge, and we can start to appreciate the extent of change that has already taken place, as well as perhaps seeing the possibilities for future change. It may certainly help us plan for future changes and view with scepticism some analyses of current demographic structures. Ultimately though our speculations are no more than speculations.
