ABSTRACT
Morgan and Hagewen (this volume) effectively use Bongaarts’ model to help us think about U.S. fertility levels: where they have been, where they are headed, how they compare to those in Western Europe, and what we most need to understand if we want to accurately predict the future of U.S. fertility. Those of us who have been following Morgan’s work, most recently highlighted in his 2003 PAA Presidential Address (Morgan, 2003), can see in this paper the coherence in Morgan’s fertility research agenda-an agenda that has documented fertility trends, motivations, and timing issues (Morgan, 2001; Morgan & King, 2001), evaluated the usefulness of fertility intentions in predicting fertility behavior (Morgan, 2001; Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2002), returned to the question of son preference in U.S. fertility decisions (Pollard & Morgan, 2002), and become increasingly interested in the institutional context surrounding fertility levels and trends in developed economies (Rindfuss, Guzzo, & Morgan, 2003).
