ABSTRACT
In 2002, the total fertility rate was 2.01, down slightly from 2.13 in 2000, but certainly not as low as one would expect from looking at trends prior to 1975 or what one would expect by looking at fertility rates in the United Kingdom (1.71) or West Germany (1.45) (Hamilton, Martin, & Sutton, 2003; Rindfuss, Guzzo, & Morgan, in press). Why has fertility not declined substantially below replacement in the United States, and can we expect it to drop to very low levels in the foreseeable future?
