ABSTRACT
This chapter analyses pre-existing literature and data from ‘high-export’ pastoralist regions of Ethiopia and surrounding areas to examine why it is possible to see a dynamic and growing pastoral livestock export trade from the Horn but also, increasing levels of destitution. A core aspect of the analysis is wealth differentiation in pastoralist communities, and how processes such as commercialization and population growth impact differently on different wealth groups. Given the fundamental importance of rainfall in pastoralist areas and the possibility of climate change leading to altered rainfall patterns, contemporary analysis of trends and vulnerability in pastoralist areas has to consider rainfall tends. The chapter proposes the kind of simple modeling and the market-access/resource-access framework shown in Catley are the kinds of tools that policymakers need to understand the relative importance of long-term trends in pastoralist areas.
