ABSTRACT
Changes in food systems can occur that are not anticipated. These ‘surprises’ are important when they have significant consequences for food security – whether positive or negative. Some examples include the public acceptance or otherwise of genetically modified crop varieties or other technological advances, or food price spikes. Multiple changes can occur in more than one aspect of a food system, can interact to yield further change or may occur through ‘feedback’ mechanisms. Changes may be in a socio-economic or environmental driver (or both) (see Figure 2.1a), or in a food system activity or outcome (see Figure 2.1b). They become a surprise due to lack of monitoring or not being predicted, or when their consequences are not expected, such as those that might lead to violence or conflict (see Chapter 17). This chapter discusses global environmental change (GEC) and food system ‘surprises’. Of particular interest is their role in helping to look ahead – not only for studying and understanding, but also for helping decision-making for better managing food systems.
