ABSTRACT
Nearly every year, countries throughout Europe are afflicted with loss of life and serious damage from flooding. Likewise, losses in agricultural production as a result of too little water occur regularly and are equally devastating. Furthermore, predictions state that climate change will lead to higher winter rainfall totals and more intense precipitation events, and it is expected that flooding will become more frequent and extreme in the 21st century (Cubasch and Meehl, 2001; Disse and Engel, 2001; Middelkoop et al, 2004, 2001; Pfister et al, 2004). The Rhine will change from a ‘rain-fed plus meltwater’ river into a ‘mainly rain-fed’ river (Kwadijk and Rotmans, 1995). Whether there will be more severe or frequent stream-flow droughts as well is still uncertain. Although there is no clear evidence, as concluded by Hisdal et al (2001) after analysing a long-time series of 600 stream-flow records from the European Water Archive (see also de Wit et al, 2007), most hydrological simulations suggest an increase in flood probability in the Rhine and Meuse river basins. There is an urgent need to improve flood risk management in order to avoid the occurrence of devastating flood events like those in 1993 and 1995.
