Notes on Urban–Rural Poverty Projections and the Role of Migration

Much of the migration literature of the past few decades paints a somewhat bleak picture of the role of rural–urban migration in determining poverty. Two lines of thought in particular stand out: the Harris–Todaro (1970) model of rural–urban migration and employment, and the urban bias thesis popularized by Michael Lipton (1977). Although neither assigns a leading role to migration as a poverty determinant, both see it as part of a larger problem of inefficient resource allocation between urban and rural areas.