ABSTRACT
There is a new urgency in hurricane preparedness efforts and the challenges faced by the emergency management community (Pielke and Landsea, 1998; Jamieson and Drury, 1997; Sheets, 1995). Forecasters are concerned that recent storms signal the return to a period of greater hurricane activity (Goldenberg et al, 2001; Landsea et al, 1999). Researchers offer compelling documentation of the increased vulnerability of coastal residents due to tremendous population growth and investment along the coast (Pielke and Pielke, 1997; Elsner and Kara, 1999; Heinz Center, 2000a, b). In some areas, tourism-based economic growth has been so rapid that traffic infrastructure does not even adequately accommodate the usual summer (and hurricane season) crowds. Researchers estimate that the aggregate value of insured property in coastal counties grew 48 per cent between 1988 and 1993 to reach a total of about $21.4 trillion (Pielke and Pielke, 1997). Concurrently, clearance times for some coastal communities exceed reasonable expectations of present and projected forecast accuracy and the perceived willingness of communities to begin evacuation earlier when uncertainty levels are higher (AMS Council, 2000). The unprecedented scale of 1999's Hurricane Floyd evacuation in the Southeast highlighted the potential pressures on the transportation system at both the state and regional levels. These transportation difficulties are emerging as a more common factor in residents' decisions not to evacuate.
