ABSTRACT
The causal typology of energy risks introduced in the previous chapter, Section 7.2 – summarized in Figure 7.2 – set the foundation for the selection of a methodology to quantify energy risks. Specifically, a quantitative method is required to estimate the geopolitical context that may complement the use of qualitative global policy scenarios. In Section 7.3.2 some considerations were made about socioeconomic energy risk that now will be used to develop an estimation method. The appropriate method should have some specific features:
Assuming the absence of observable variables able to measure directly socioeconomic energy risk, the procedure should have the ability to use a combination of variables related to the four risk factors shown in Figure 7.1 – economic, energy, political and social factors – to obtain a single specific measure per country for each group of variables.
The outcomes of the method for each group of variables should be cardinal measures that allow countries to be evaluated or ranked and, at the same time, provide information about the relative risk.
