ABSTRACT

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that averting dangerous climate change requires limiting global concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) to 450 ppm by 2100 (IPCC 2007). Increasingly international climate change negotiations reflect the IPCC view that “deep cuts in global emissions are required … to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius … and prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC 2009). In particular, it is now understood that developing countries will need to lower emissions between 15 to 30 per cent below business-as-usual (BAU) up to 2020, while a 70 to 90 per cent below BAU reduction will be needed globally by 2050 (den Elzen and Höhne 2008, Karousakis et al. 2008).