ABSTRACT
If one thinks of long waves as being generated by clusters of basic innovations which create new industries and cause long expansions in the production of capital goods, the Kondratieff cycle should manifest itself first of all in the development of the index of industrial production. National income or product is less adequate as a measure, since it contains other components besides industrial production (e.g. agriculture, trade, domestic services), the development of which is not quite clear in a long wave context. In addition, valuation problems are most severe with national product or income. Ideally, the industrial production series should be transformed into series on a per capita basis in order to neutralize the effects of internal population growth and migration (e.g. the pre-1920 transatlantic migration waves!).
