ABSTRACT
This is an island ‘state’ of 23 million people, with an uncertain international status: most countries have not recognized Taiwan (which claims to be the legitimate Government of China-the ‘Republic of China’—rather than an independent state) and while the People’s Republic of China still claims the island province, the USAwould consider any move on the part of the People’s Republic to conquer Taiwan as casus belli. Taiwan was Chinese in ancient times. The Dutch (in 1624) were the first to occupy Taiwan, and then the Spanish and Japanese also tried to lay their grip on the island. Finally, the Japanese abandoned the island in the wake of the Second World War, after facing growing resistance from its inhabitants. China was then still ruled by the regime of Chiang Kai-Shek (Jiang Jieshi). When Mao Tse-tung (Mao Zedong) and the communists defeated Chiang Kai-Shek and his Kuomintang (Guomindang) party, Taiwan was the place the defeated could find refuge. The Kuomintang managed not only to maintain the island, but also kept control of some of the small islands of just off the mainland Chinese coast, such as Quemoy and Matsu. The Kuomintang also kept China’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council until 1971, when the USA conceded publicly that a communist nation of some one billion people could not be held hostage by a right-wing ‘Chinese’ Government on an island of 15 million people. The modus vivendi found between China and the USA since has been a policy of non-recognition of Taiwan on the part of the USA and most of the international community, while at the same time the People’s Republic must respect the autonomy of the island and the principle of non-interference in its domestic affairs. The Chinese, however, have on more than one occasion declared that they cannot commit themselves not to resort to force, particularly if the island proclaimed its independence (hence formal separation from China) and in view of Taiwan’s armament policy and the increasing militarization of the straits of Taiwan by the USA. China has responded with missile tests in the area and with mock military exercises about taking the island. A most interesting development over the last few years is the joint Chinese-Russian military exercises around Taiwan, but also in Central Asia and the Caucasus. It seems that a Russo-Chinese understanding has begun to develop, an understanding that has an anti-American military dimension, with the Russians assisting the Chinese in Taiwan and the
