ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: A rapid method of assessing security of supply from service-reservoirs is described. A method of determining the minimum storage profile needed to ensure compliance with a prescribed service standard is also indicated. The probability distribution of bulk supply interruptions is calculated from component reliability data. Consequences of interruptions are inferred using a mass-balance heuristic. The probability and distribution of resulting customer supply problem durations is then calculated from the resulting reservoir profiles. Control curves are obtained from an inverse procedure. Calculations are fast enough for sensitivity analysis and for interactive evaluation of alternative operational or design options. Monte Carlo simulation has verified the method.
