ABSTRACT

This chapter is part of a larger study on the socioeconomic impacts of climate change in Brazil this century. The study involves a multidisciplinary team of researchers, including experts in meteorology, water, energy, agriculture, demographics, health, etc. Given global climate change scenarios, the effects of climate change forecasts for the period 2008–2100 on water supply (availability, regularity, river flows, etc.) were estimated. From these estimates, the expected effects on hydro energy production and on agriculture were pointed out. The combined effects of all those impacts were then included into a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model, which allowed for the calculation of their impacts on GDP growth and employment creation across 55 sectors and 558 regions. In this chapter we focus only on the analysis of energy use in the period 2008–2035.