ABSTRACT
Introduction Those who study international politics and foreign policy decision making are faced with a paradox. On one hand, the beliefs of leaders seem critical to understanding their foreign policy decisions. Empirically, they are important because of the utility that they provide to political leaders by-among other things-suggesting ready frameworks for analyzing both novel and common situations and imposing order on what would otherwise be overwhelming amounts of information. On a theoretical level they are important because of the influence they exert on many facets of international politics-from how leaders think about and respond to public opinion (Foyle 1999) to what type of international system is constituted by the mutually reinforcing beliefs of world leaders (Wendt 1992). There is also evidence that beliefs are relevant on multiple levels of analysis, from the individual to the cultural level (Johnston 1995). In fact, unless one denies the importance of looking at anything beyond objective capabilities, beliefs must take a central place in one’s analysis as either independent or mediating variables.
