Fertility, Mortality and Income — Changes over the Long Run: Some Simulation Experiments

Several economic-demographic models of a whole economy have been developed since Coale and Hoover first published their Economic Development in Low Income Countries [1958]. Coale and Hoover simulated an economy under alternative assumptions of high and low fertility. In their short-term model, total product grew more slowly under high fertility than it did under low fertility. On the other hand, in the long-run model, although total product was higher under high fertility than under low fertility, per capita income levels were considerably reduced. Partly in answer to the criticism levelled at Coale and Hoover and those who followed in their footsteps, a number of increasingly complex models have been produced. ¹ While most modellers have been concerned with the economic consequences of different demographic trajectories (particularly fertility), another approach has been to make population growth endogenously determined and to explore the consequences of different economic growth paths. For example, assuming a homogenous population, Casetti [1977] attempts to shed some light on how much economic growth is needed to ‘defuse’ the population explosion of an ideal-typical LDC. ²