ABSTRACT
Uncertainty is a central component of naturalistic models of decision making as well as emerging macrocognitive frameworks, and a defining characteristic of human performance in naturalistic decision-making (NDM) environments. In contrast to traditional decision-making approaches that conceptualize uncertainty in terms of explicit probability assessments, uncertainty in NDM contexts has been defined as a “sense of doubt that blocks or delays action” (Lipshitz & Strauss, 1997, p. 150). In this way, uncertainty is viewed, at least in part, as an affective appraisal, as a feeling of uncertainty. However, uncertainty in NDM is still largely viewed as a quantity to be reduced or eliminated, an obstacle to be overcome. While this is no doubt valid in many senses, it is a limited view consistent more with prescriptive decision-making research traditions than with naturalistic ones. As the NDM community of practice expands the type of cognitive performance it investigates, from intuitive decision making to causal reasoning and sensemaking, for example, the issue of uncertainty becomes increasingly important. The sensemaking literature places the affective experience of unexpected events as a central component of performance, so much so that the “ feeling of order, clarity, and rationality is an important goal of sensemaking” (Weick, 1995, p. 29). Therefore, a more explicit treatment of how affect interacts with or colors the knowledge work of professionals is in order.
