ABSTRACT
The Bavarian Christian Social Union’s alarming drop in popular support at the September 2008 Landtag election – down by almost 20 percentage points – raises serious questions about this hitherto dominant party (Roth 1982). The CSU had enjoyed uncontested dominance in Bavaria for almost 50 years – far longer than any other party in Western Europe until the ‘crash’ of 2008. Now the CSU has to rely on a coalition partner to stay in government. The deeper worry for the party following this earthquake election was whether it could win back support, especially with the federal election due in 2009. There were concerns that if the CSU could not restore support there would be negative implications for the CDU-CSU as a whole. In the event, this federal election was a major shift from the 2005 election when the CDU/CSU had to form a grand coalition with the SDP. German Chancellor Angela Merkel won a second term and a comfortable centre-right majority with the Free Democrats. The CSU maintained its vote and seat shares but the Social Democrats (SDP) had their worst parliamentary election result since World War II.
