ABSTRACT
The probabilistic flood forecast developed in this research together with the inundation model is capable of providing a forecast of when and where river banks are likely to be overtopped. This could be more detailed with several cross sections into the river. Decisions for evacuation can be categorized by determining the risk that overtopping represent to residents in areas adjacent to rivers or stream flows. The available knowledge when the evacuation decision can be made include probabilistic flood forecast published by each zone or location with large historical floods. The approach of Flood Alert System is to minimize loss of life and disruptions to communities through identification of the evacuation decision and strategy that has the maximum expected value under current conditions. The potential cost related with the decision model for evacuation can be categorized as losses resulting from preventable flood damage and losses from evacuation.
