Multimodeling Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Rice Productivity: A Case Study in Cauvery River Basin, Tamil Nadu, India
The most detailed atmosphere ocean general circulation models differ in the predicted climate change for a given increase in greenhouse gases. Incorporating that type of climate change information in a risk management approach to water resource planning would be useful. As rice is grown mainly under flooded conditions and consumes about 80% of all the irrigation water diverted to agriculture in Tamil Nadu, any change in the climate that leads to reduction in water availability impacts rice production and productivity to a greater extent. An attempt was made to understand the hydrology and rice productivity of Cauvery River Basin in India by integrating climate model outputs in impact models through a multimodel approach. With the stream flow for baseline, mid-century, and end-century scenarios at different dependability levels for major reservoir sites of Cauvery river basin, it could be inferred that the flow for all dependability levels at all the nine major reservoir locations would increase in the future climate scenario.