ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT This chapter describes a theory-based analytical capability to enable analysts to better assess the inuence of events on groups interacting within a country or a region. These events can include changes in policy, human-made or natural disasters, war, or other changes in environmental/economic conditions. This chapter includes a discussion of (1) the underlying psychological, social, and economic theories that are synthesized within its structure; (2) the inclusion of data and expert opinion into the modeling structure; (3) the methods used to computationally instantiate theories and data/opinion; (4) the types of assessments that are generated; and (5) the implications of these assessments in comparison to current events.
