ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Foreign policy as implemented by the US military in the early twenty-rst century has not achieved the results that initially motivated its interventions in other countries. Senior decision makers and their supporting analysts must account for the relevant policy factors and their complex interactions to improve their policy results. They must better assess the costs, the benets, and the complex consequences of proposed policies and interventions. Modeling and simulation can aid foreign policy analysis by leveraging computers to help decision makers and their analysts to organize the myriad factors and understand the complex interactions associated with interventions in foreign social systems. Computer-based modeling and simulation accomplishes this by specifying, quantifying, and integrating causal relationships and available data into a unied analytic framework. The resulting simulation allows analysts to perform what-if scenario analyses that explore and characterize the short-and long-term consequences of potential policies and interventions. Examples are provided from the US experience in Afghanistan through a system dynamics simulation of local decision making with an emphasis on the network effects of proximity and compatibility associated with implementing democracy. Lessons learned from Afghanistan are then applied to the strategy formulation issues currently facing the US foreign policy community regarding ISIS.
