Use of probabilistic methods and cellular automata in the evaluation of hazard scenarios and paths of landslides triggered by rains
The objective of this research is to simulate the role of rain in determining landslides, obtaining the quantification of the hazard in terms of probability of failure, as well as simulating the paths of possible landslides events. As methodology, the association between an infinite slope stability model and a probabilistic method provides the indicative of stability in terms of probability of failure from imposing historical precipitation measurements. The established hazard scenario serves as input for a cellular automata routine, which considers geomorphological aspects of a given region in order to predict the path of landslides that would be caused by rainfall events judged as triggering. In conclusion, it determines the harmful effect of rain on the stability of slopes, as well as assesses the spread of shallow landslides and aspects related to characteristics of their paths from the source to the point of maximum reach.