ABSTRACT

Vulnerability is a fundamental component in the evaluation of risk, which is a complex issue to estimate. Vulnerability to landslide depends on both the landslide intensity and the characteristics of elements at risk. It is critical to estimate quantitatively the vulnerability of each category of vulnerable elements to different intensity and impact mechanisms of landslide. A quantitative model is proposed to quantify vulnerability of structures and persons to landslide. The intensity parameters take account of different building structures and different categories of ground surface deformation due to the deformation stage of landslide. The model is illustrated with a slow moving landslide, which is located in Badong County, the Three Gorges Reservoir. Based on the numerical simulation of ground surface deformation and moving velocity, the vulnerability of structures in different prediction scenarios is analyzed. This information can be used by local authorities, rescue teams and emergency services as a base for an emergency plan and effective disaster management.