ABSTRACT
The Federal Waterway Administration of Germany (WSV) is responsible for a huge number of waterway constructions namely locks, weirs, storm surge barriers, ship lifts, light houses, etc.. Based on the current state of these infrastructures a forecasting of the deterioration is needed to predict maintenance and repair activities as well as to estimate human and financial resources required. Importantly, an integral description of deterioration processes is now possible through implementation of stochastic models based on survival functions and Markov matrices. A Delphi interview was performed to find the parameters for the survival functions and the Markov matrices. The process of the Delphi interview and the results will be described. Finally the capacity of the chosen models is demonstrated with case studies.
