ABSTRACT
This chapter presents demographic and epidemiological projections for general practice. It starts by what percentage the number of general practitioners (GPs) must increase in the period 2005-2020 to meet the increasing demand for primary care. The chapter explores policy options of enlarging the number of positions in the education of GPs, task delegation and task shifting, triage systems and new models of co-operation, such as walk-in centres and integrated primary care institutions. It describes healthcare consumption in general practice from the perspective of the health status of the Dutch population and trends in incidence or prevalence of major diseases. The chapter presents the number of GPs needed in 2010 and 2020 to take care of increasing health demands resulting from expected demographic and epidemiological developments. It utilizes data from the second Dutch National Survey of General Practice and the 2002 Dutch Public Health Status and Forecasts Report, in combination with population forecasts of Statistics Netherlands.
