Anatomy of a Rivalry

A keen observer of East Asia’s international relations, Michael Yahuda, describes the strategic dilemma confronting China and Japan as essentially that of “two tigers sharing a mountain”. ¹ This chapter teases out the complexities of this dynamic, with particular focus on the two powers’ engagement in Southeast Asia. This has not been a mutually-voluntary sharing of influence. As the chapter shows, an evolving state of cool rivalry marks the relationship of China and Japan in Southeast Asia. ² There is a growing Sino–Japanese rivalry in that region, evident in all three domains of economics, politics and security. At the same time, this has not been an overt, hard competition in that while China and Japan take each other’s Southeast Asia policy into account, this contest is unlikely to turn into a vortex of conflict. The one conceivable exception is the intensifying Sino–Japanese discord over the South China Sea disputes, where the potential exists for a more militarily “normalized” Japan to be drawn into the larger and more precarious Sino– American security competition there.