A methodological framework for assessing macroeconomic impacts of energy security improvements in Asia
This chapter presents the broad contours of the methodological framework that is employed (in Chapter 8) to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of policies aimed at improving energy security in major economies in Asia (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) for the period 2015–2050. The key elements of this framework include attributes for specifying energy security and socioeconomic impacts; a platform for integrating energy security and socioeconomic domains; alternative energy policy scenarios, namely, Country Policy (CP), Country Aspiration (CA), and Sustainable Development (SD), representing a range of supply-side (e.g. diversification of energy fuel-mix) and demand-side (e.g. improved energy efficiency) measures to improve energy security; an energy-oriented multi-country input-output (MICO) model to assess socioeconomic impacts of alternative scenarios; and a suite of composite energy security and socioeconomic indices – to enable analyses of policy trade-offs. The appropriateness of this framework is justified on the grounds of its ability to integrate various domains (i.e. energy, economic, environmental, and social) in a single platform; represent individual-country domain-structures in terms of underlying linkages, at disaggregated levels; consider market-based and regulated systems in individual economies; capture the interdependencies across the countries in terms of trade-linkages within Asia and beyond; and articulate policy trade-offs that policy makers in the region might wish to consider as they design energy and economic policies to redress the energy security challenges in their respective countries.