ABSTRACT
The macroeconomic analysis of slower growth (of gross domestic product (GDP) or similar) takes on high relevance for two rather different reasons. The first reason is motivated by the prospects and recent experiences of growth in industrialized economies which were slower than that experienced earlier in the post-war period, and the projection of slower growth into the future. There has been some tendency for the rate of growth to be lower over the past 30 years or so. Bergeaud et al. (2015) review per capita GDP for 17 industrialized countries over the period 1890 to 2013. They note that ‘almost all countries have suffered from a significant decline in GDP per capita growth during the last decades of the period’. Syverson (2016) considers specifically the slowdown in US productivity growth and explanations. He notes though that ‘several studies have noted recent productivity slowdowns in other economically advanced countries . . . Furthermore, Cette et al. (2015) document that, as in the U.S., these slowdowns began before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and recession’. How far the financial crisis has reinforced these tendencies remains to be seen, though growth over the past decade has been remarkably slow in many countries. The theme of secular stagnation has been raised; this can be viewed as a combination of the prospect of slower growth and a tendency for investment requirements to fall short of savings.1
