ABSTRACT
Survey data undercut the notion that the 2016 Republican nomination contest signaled the end of ideology as a significant factor to primary and caucus participants. Ideological differences among candidates in a crowded field were not unintelligible to Republican voters – but they were, to borrow a term, somewhat "fuzzy" around the edges. As Donald Trump was settling in as the Grand Old Party (GOP) frontrunner in summer 2015, journalist and commentator Josh Barro contended that beneath the bombast, "a surprising fact emerges: Mr. Trump is a moderate Republican". A comprehensive examination of exit-poll data from 2000 to 2012 identified four factions in the Republican Party electorate, based on ideology and religious affiliation: liberals and moderates, somewhat conservative voters, very conservative evangelicals, and very conservative seculars. Interparty polarization has created intraparty "homogenization" within fields of presidential primary candidates, argues Paulson.
