Inferring in Theory
This chapter discusses the ontology of knowledge – how can we argue that something like a risk exists or is emerging? It defines the interests of knowledge, the principles of producing and verifying scientific knowledge according falsification, the scientific method and optional forms of reasoning, the difference between research strategy and methodological principle, and finally the parts that constitute a fully-fledged methodology. These philosophical aspects are presented in this chapter because they form the foundation for producing any reliable strategic foresight or intelligence knowledge. Hence, these aspects need to be defined and discussed in some level in any fullyfledged methodological theory that we want to make for strategic or foresight purposes. In this sense, this chapter is a prelude for the sixth chapter where the methodologies, principles and practices of inferring in foresight are discussed.