chapter  12
4 Pages

Views of Strategic Foresight Knowledge Producers

The history of the world is full of examples of intelligence failures such as Pearl Harbour or Port Arthur. Despite the fact that we have always tried to improve all parts of intelligence work and to establish a theory of nonfailing intelligence, new failures keep coming. Why? The answer is because it is impossible to prevent failures in intelligence. It is still quite easy to work with natural disasters such as tsunamis or earthquakes, but when it comes to systems of people it is completely different. If we do not have direct knowledge

and we usually do not, we can only establish scenarios and give probabilities at best. This helps our decision makers to do pre-emptive strategies or alternative counter-strategies, which again can only mitigate the failures of intelligence.