chapter  13
14 Pages

Views of Strategic Foresight Knowledge Producers

I will tell what my ideal strategic intelligence system would be like if I could design it from the beginning. First, we should use as authentic observations and data as possible, not estimations or interpretations. When a relevant piece of information is detected in intelligence, one analyst should be required to do a basic blueprint and analysis of it. Then this presentation should be discussed within specialist analyst team A, which contains devil’s advocates as well. Team A gives several alternative explanations, views and scenarios of the detected information. Then all these alternative explanations and scenarios of team A are analysed and tested by analysts. If they are able to identify any piece of information which speaks against any of those that have been created, it becomes falsified according the Popperian falsification process. After this evaluation phase we may have 2-3 explanations or scenarios left which will be processed into presentations by an analyst. Now the presentations of these remaining issues or theories are given to another team, team B, which is gathered from non-specialists on the issue. Team B, evaluates the importance of each of the given issues or theories, and creates their alternative explanations,

views and scenarios to the issues. Team A is then challenged with the outcomes from team B and as a result team A prepares the final 2-3 scenarios which are given to the decision makers. Decision makers need to decide what to do in each of the possible cases.