chapter  3
46 Pages

Macro-model Scenarios and Implications for European Policy

ByFrancis Cripps

This chapter presents model-generated projections of economic and ¿nancial developments that may be anticipated in the period up to 2030 under alternative assumptions about global and European governance systems. Four main scenarios are presented: ‘Struggling on’, ‘EU breakup’, ‘Multi-speed Europe’ and ‘Towards Federal Europe’. Each scenario makes one or more assumptions about the global context. Global contexts, similar to those discussed in a number of European and US reports including Global Trends published by the National Intelligence Council, include

Introduction 59 Plan of the Chapter 61 1. Assumptions and Method of Analysis 62 1) Global Contexts 62 2) Alternatives for Europe 62 3) Scenario-building with the Macro Model 63 4) Trends in the Global Economy to 2030 64 5) Macro-economic Constraints and Choices 65 6) Issues for Europe as They Appear in the Macro Model 68 2. The Scenarios: Policies and Outcomes 70 1) Struggling On 70 2) Alternative Global Context: US-China Accommodation 78 3) EU Break-up 80 4) Multi-speed Europe 83 5) Towards Federal Europe 90 6) Alternative Global Context: Multi-polar Collaboration 94 3. Comparison with Other Studies 97 1) Global Prospects 97 2) Global Risks 98 3) Focus on Europe 99

x continued integration and commercialisation of global trade, technology and ¿nance with governments having relatively less inÀuence and ¿nancial resources (‘reduced government’); in this context Europe is ‘struggling on’ or undergoing ‘break-up’.