Conspiracy narratives as response to uncertainty in minority religions

This chapter argues that the oft-noted presence of conspiracy theory narratives in minority religions is a response to uncertainty, particularly of challenges to truth-claims. The discussion is framed theoretically in the context of Festinger et al.’s When Prophecy Fails (1956), arguing that conspiracy theorizing can be considered another strategy to avoid cognitive dissonance. At the same time, this can help increase group cohesion by converting an internal challenge into an external threat, while also increasing the group’s epistemic seclusion. This is examined through two case-studies – Scientology and the New Age or popular millennial milieu – in which prophetic failure and societal resistance led to the adoption of narratives which posit organized resistance by secretive groups. This suggests the applicability of Festinger’s work beyond the study of millenarian groups.