ABSTRACT
Projections of world agricultural trade tend to reflect the ups and downs of world market conditions, being optimistic in boom periods and pessimistic when prices are low and surpluses abound. Accordingly, projections in the 1970s were upbeat as agricultural trade grew at the rate of 5 percent per year—well above the 3 percent annual growth experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. The volume of world grain trade increased from 80 million metric tons (mmt) in 1961 to almost 200 mmt in 1981, growing at an annual average rate of 2.4 percent in the 1960s and more than 7 percent in the 1970s. Overall, the volume of agricultural trade grew 2.5 times as fast as production in the 1970s (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 1987, p. 10). As measured by the increase in agricultural imports, both developed and developing countries participated in this expansion.
