chapter  11
Coherence and bidirectional reasoning in complex and risky decision-making tasks
ByC. Gustav Lundberg
Pages 22

The focus of this article is on processes associated with emerging inference-based decision-making. To infer means concluding something on the basis of evidence or reasoning, or even making a reasonable guess. The process of making important and consequential decisions has been described as a gradual process of making sense of a complex decision task, of fitting something confusing into coherent mental representations. People have been shown to generate sense quite effortlessly – and compulsively – even in highly opaque and conflict-laden situations based on multitudes of inferences (cf. Lundberg, 2006b, 2007). However, the process of making sense is quite poorly understood. Here, an attempt is made to describe the underlying cognitive processes through a dissection of a set of complex decisionmaking tasks. One task involves decision-makers with varying levels of expertise in

external auditing making a going concern judgment, whereas two other tasks involve non-experts in mock-jury settings.