ABSTRACT

When the United States and many allies decided to recognize Kosovo’s independence in 2008, old arguments about fears of precedents and their deterrent effect were deployed once again. In Canada, for instance, a delayed response was seen as a result of concerns about the impact upon Quebec separatism. 2 Indeed, many of the countries refusing to recognize Kosovo are those that face serious secessionist movements, including Georgia, India, Pakistan and Russia. However, many countries recognizing Kosovo also face their own separatist threats, including Belgium, Croatia, France, Macedonia and Turkey. We can always find anecdotes one way or the other, but a systematic analysis of the international relations of ethnic conflict should reveal whether vulnerability to separatism is the deterrent that it is often averred to be, or whether other factors, such as ethnic ties or relative power, matter more.