ABSTRACT

In 2006 several events commemorated the 50th anniversary of the publication of When Prophecy Fails, where Leon Festinger (1919–89) and his collaborators first introduced the notion of ‘cognitive dissonance’ on the basis of their study of a failed prophecy (Festinger et al. 1956). The Festinger team infiltrated the group led by UFO contactee Dorothy Martin (1900–92), disguised in their book under the pseudonym of ‘Madame Keech’, just before her prediction about the coming of the aliens and the end of this world as we know it failed to come true. Placed in a situation of ‘cognitive dissonance’ between its persuasions and those of society at large, the group did not collapse. Rather, Martin’s followers resolved their situation of cognitive dissonance through a renewed effort at proselytism. Festinger concluded that, when a religious prophecy fails, we should not necessarily expect the collapse of the group responsible for the failure. He regarded its survival through increased activism and proselytism as more probable.