ABSTRACT
There is a clear shift in the South China Sea (SCS) away from conflicts about territorial claims on islands. Instead, there is a shift towards disputes about maritime zones. The goal was to occupy land, the basis for military garrisons; then, with the advent of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Three scenarios can be sketched out to interpret the U-shaped line, as Beijing has never given a clear explanation of what the line is supposed to encompass. The first scenario is that line represents a claim to all insular features that lie within it: thus, the line would not imply any claim to the sea, but would merely assert a claim of sovereignty over all emerged features lying within the line. A second hypothesis is that the line depicts maritime zones generated from the mainland, and from the islands belonging to China. A third hypothesis is that the line represents a claim to historic waters.
