ABSTRACT
The Republican Party has held the New Mexico First Congressional District seat since 1969 despite the urban character of the district and party registration figures that favor the Democrats with Democratic registration at 45.4 percent (189,642), GOP registration at 35.2 percent (146,941), and the remainder belonging to a third party or declining to state their party affiliation.1 At the state and local level Democrats in Bernalillo County, which encompasses 77 percent of New Mexico’s First District, generally win non-federal races easily. For example, in 2004, Democratic candidates won twelve out of thirteen contested races in the county. Voting patterns at the presidential level in the district, however, are very competitive. For example, in 2004 Senator John Kerry won the district with 51 percent of the vote. Interestingly, the district is unique in its ethnic composition as not simply a minority-majority district, but a place where Anglos and Hispanics represent nearly equal proportions of the population and both groups dominate both the local and state political culture. Given these characteristics and the fact that very few House seats are in swing districts, New Mexico’s First District is an ongoing battleground as a target for a Democratic takeover. The situation generates strong, competitive Democratic candidates who can raise lots of money and the activity of a variety of group interests on both sides of the aisle. In the 2006 cycle, these factors along with the Democratic wave that was building due to a poor national political environment, including the worsening situation in Iraq, gas prices hitting over $3.00 a gallon,
and the president’s plummeting approval rating, made the race look even more promising for Democrats and their allies.
