ABSTRACT
This chapter begins by considering the foundational epistemological issues in forecasting, which relate to the epistemic significance of prediction and the interpretation of the past’s legacy for the future. The rest of the chapter draws on the work of perhaps the most intellectually ambitious theorist and researcher of forecasting in recent times, Philip Tetlock. He sees expert forecasting as a form of judgment that can be evaluated and corrected scientifically, mainly through the administration of thought experiments involving what he calls “taboo cognitions.” Tetlock has proposed the concept of “superforecasting” to describe forecasting as an iterated activity in relation to an overarching strategy. This idea, taken from military strategy, helps to reveal the social psychology underlying successful forecasting, which turns on adaptive preference formation and the capacity to cope with – and perhaps even capitalize on – unwanted outcomes.
