5 Local property values in fourteenth- and fifteenth-century

The­overall­picture­is­one­in­which­the­number­of­fines­in­each­county­oscillates­ randomly about a declining determining time trend. Deviations about the trend are­correlated­across­counties,­with­Berkshire­tending­to­lead,­Warwickshire­to­ follow,­ with­ Essex­ and­ Huntingdonshire­ between­ them.­ The­ most­ significant­ transmission effects seem to be between neighbouring counties such as Berkshire and Essex (separated only by Middlesex, containing London of course), Essex and Huntingdonshire (separated only by Cambridgeshire) and Berkshire and­Warwickshire­ (separated­ only­ by­Oxfordshire).­By­ contrast­ links­ between­ distant­counties,­such­as­Essex­and­Warwickshire,­are­relatively­weak.­It­appears­ that­shocks­to­the­number­of­fines­originate­close­to­London,­in­Berkshire­in­particular,­and­diffuse­northwards­to­Huntingdonshire­and­Warwickshire. These results should be interpreted with caution, however. Huntingdonshire is a­smaller­county­than­the­other­three,­and­has­correspondingly­fewer­fines;­this­ may­partly­explain­why­results­are­less­significant­for­Huntingdonshire­than­for­ other counties.