ABSTRACT
This chapter gives a quick overview of the currently available methods for producing technological forecasts. Intuitive forecasting is almost certainly the most widely used method. It is the kind of forecast obtained by "asking an expert". The major difference between the ordinary use of historical analogy and its use in technological forecasting is that the technological forecaster uses it consciously and deliberately, examining the "model" situation and the situation to be forecast in considerable detail to determine the extent to which the analogy between them is valid. Trend extrapolation is one way of getting around the problem of predicting when the S-curve is going to change direction. Instead of concentrating on a single device and attempting to predict the future course of development of that device, the trend extrapolation method considers a series of successive devices which performed similar functions. The structural model represents an attempt to develop a mathematical or analytical model of the technology-generation process.
