ABSTRACT

This chapter suggests a reason for forecasting; namely that we can accelerate the progress of those technologies which are desirable. Rather than wait for the technology to work itself out, we can set ourselves the deliberate goal of achieving the forecast level at an earlier date. The chapter outlines the present status of technological forecasting (T/F) and then explains how it can be employed to the benefit of astronauts. Technological forecasting is a new field of intellectual activity that will be of vital importance to those of us who are engaged in various phases of space exploration. "Trend curves" provide a useful tool in making T/F long-range projections beyond twenty years. Mathematical forecasting methodology makes use of a model which permits complex computer-programmed T/F exercises. Synthesis T/F can start with a preliminary forecast which may be arrived at using trend curves, dynamic forecasting, interviews and correspondence with experts.