ABSTRACT
Macedonia entered a new political era in 2017 following the end of a 10-year rule by the VMRO-DPMNE coalition, marred by scandals, political instability, state capture, and cronyism. This period of significant democratic backsliding and economic stagnation opened a window of opportunity for Russian influence. This was achieved through Moscow’s preferred tools of media propaganda, soft power initiatives, intelligence operations, and the development of domestic oligarchic networks. Even though there is a new government and impetus to solve the name issue and re-focus the country on the EU and NATO path, Macedonia remains extremely vulnerable to widespread corruption risks and external economic shocks. Russia will continue looking for ways to exploit the institutional gaps to ensure its dominance over regional energy markets and lock-in governments in long-term projects. This chapter shows how Russia has steadily increased its economic presence in Macedonia, most visibly in the oil, gas, and mining sectors. The latter can continue to be used as leverage to pressure governments on other seemingly unrelated issues such as military neutrality, sanctions policy, and EU integration. The tendency of regional governments, including the Macedonian one, to place geopolitical considerations before economic rationale paves the way for a greater Russian influence.
