ABSTRACT
Any deterrent effect of the criminal justice system ultimately operates through the public’s perceptions of the certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment. This “process of perceptual deterrence” has two legs—one on the formation of perceptions and the second on how perceptions once formed impact behavior. To date, little is known little about how perceptions of sanction threats are formed, though people do update their prior perceptions in light of new information in a way consistent with deterrence assumptions. The extant evidence also suggests that perceived sanction threats have a modest impact on a person’s behavior. While the perceived severity of punishment has a negligible effect on criminal offending, researchers consistently find evidence of a slight direct deterrent effect for perceived certainty and find a stronger indirect effect when formal sanctions trigger informal sanctions. Very little research has been directed at the celerity of punishment, although more interest is being shown in how the swiftness of punishment works. To enrich their inquiry, criminologists are beginning to borrow knowledge on decision-making from other disciplines, notably cognitive psychology and behavioral economics. Indeed, the substantive area of offender decision-making will likely be very fertile ground for researchers for years to come.
