ABSTRACT
Using models to optimize poultry nutrition R. M. Gous and C. Fisher, University of KwaZulu-Natal and EFG Software, South Africa
1 Introduction
2 Predicting responses of poultry to nutrients
3 Predicting food intake
4 Predicting potential laying performance
5 Modelling environmental factors affecting desired feed intake
6 Using models to optimize feeding programmes
7 Summary
8 Where to look for further information
9 References
Commercial poultry production is all about making decisions and then implementing these decisions. The objective in most cases is to maximize profit for the enterprise. A decision is a choice between alternative courses of action, and it is made by weighing the consequences of these courses of action. The process of decision making is one that everyone practices every day: identifying the problem, evaluating alternative courses of action, choosing the most appropriate course of action on some or other basis, implementing the decision, evaluating the consequences and repeating the cycle. In order to evaluate the consequences effectively, these first need to be predicted. There is a common belief in poultry feeding that experience and/or experiments are an accurate means of predicting the consequences of different courses of action, but this is a slow and uncertain way of achieving a consensus. It is more likely that an accurate theory will lead to the correct decision being made in a fraction of the time required by any of the alternative methods.
