chapter  3
Drought and Future Climate
WithChristopher Steuer, C. Gregory Knight
Pages 8

Proper planning necessitates an understanding of whether conditions experienced during the drought years could be an analog for future Bulgarian climate. Does the drought represent a plausible future climate in Bulgaria under existing trends of global climate change? According to studies done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, predicted European climate trends indicate temperature increases throughout the year, while precipitation change may fluctuate spatially and temporally. The normal annual precipitation for 1961-1990 and changes expected two climate change models for future time periods. In general, there may be a very small precipitation increase early in the second century, with small decreases by mid- and late-century. Given how dry Bulgaria was in 1993, future rainfall appears to be, on average, higher than this drought year. Increasing global temperatures mean higher evaporation in future, such that patterns of precipitation-minus-evaporation indicate that Bulgaria will get both warmer and very much drier.