ABSTRACT
The study presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis exercise of the security of gas supply model implemented in the probabilistic gas network simulator ProGasNet. The study showed the potential and usefulness of sensitivity study applied to the ProGasNet gas network model. It has not only identified the most important model parameters for which more attention should be paid during the estimation process of the input parameter values, but also provided useful insights into the simulation process by confirming, e.g., the heterogeneity of the network from a sensitivity analysis perspective. The model was run for four different scenarios representing different disruption situations. The study confirms the results already observed in other studies that some disruption scenarios affect only part of the network (e.g. specific countries) while other parts of the network are not affected. This clearly indicates heterogeneity of the network and the need for further infrastructure development. The most important parameters for each country are identified, and peak demand value is the main parameter for the three countries.
